The decline in foreign tourism to the United States, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and increased border scrutiny, may signal an impending economic recession.
At a Glance
- International arrivals to the U.S. have decreased by 3.3% in the first quarter.
- Canadian visitors are declining due to political tensions.
- Goldman Sachs estimates a potential $90 billion hit to the U.S. GDP.
- US tourism may not surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2029.
Tourism Decline Challenges U.S. Economy
The United States tourism sector, anticipating a rebound to pre-COVID levels, finds itself grappling with stark declines instead. Non-citizen arrivals at airports have witnessed a staggering decrease, particularly from Canada—the nation traditionally leading the charge in international visitors. Experts, including those at Goldman Sachs, forecast a chilling 0.3% hit to the GDP, tantamount to a $90 billion plunge.
Watch more about the decline and its impacts.
Current conditions starkly contrast analysts’ expectations of a robust influx surpassing 2024 numbers. Yet, geopolitical tensions—a result of controversial tariffs and hostile rhetoric—have colored international perception, diverting potential travelers to other destinations. Tourism Economics further supports this decline, noting a potential 9.4% drop in international arrivals throughout the year. With airlines cutting flights by 3.5%, these figures reflect undeniable economic repercussions.
This piece cherry-picks stats and leans heavily on speculative spin.
Inbound travel drop? Real—but global travel is volatile post-COVID, with economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions affecting demand everywhere.
Tourism Economics revision? They revised from… https://t.co/5bVnXLCwUO
— Rambling Goat (@ABeardedDude) March 30, 2025
Economic Impact of Reduced Tourism
Flight bookings on Canada-U.S. routes plummeted by 70%, followed by similar downturns in hotel rates and car rental costs—an alarming indicator of dwindling foreign travelers. Tourism—a vital 2.5% contributor to the U.S. GDP—faces eroding economic momentum brought about by these declines. Despite these staggering statistics, the U.S. Travel Association remains vigilant and hopeful.
“The survey data is all indicating a significant mix of cancellations and a massive drop in intent to travel” – Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks
The current economic climate is further strained as American tourism products face boycotts, yielding a projected $90 billion blow to the U.S. economy by 2025. Illustrating the bitter impact of increased border scrutiny and aggressive diplomatic strategies, the drop-off in foreign tourism reflects mounting anxiety among international visitors and economists alike.
Hope for Recovery Amidst Turbulent Times
Global perceptions of the U.S. remain uncertain under nationalistic policies and consequences of those decisions. Yet, the tourism sector perseveres. In recognition of adversities, Oregon’s tourism commission and others lean into innovation, intent on engaging international audiences. Should international visitor numbers continue to decline, shifts toward bolstering domestic interest could prove invaluable.
“Oregon is not and will not take its eye off those international markets,” Davidson said. “We will be here when our international visitors feel that they are ready to return.” – Todd Davidson
The geopolitical strain imposed upon tourism requires vigilance and strategy to avert looming recession. Innovation, persistent communication, and adaptable strategy are essential in order to weather the current storm and potentially reverse the nation’s tourism recession. However, biting back against narratives of hostility remains a difficult path to tread.
