United Airlines is shaking up the aviation industry by presenting two radically different profit forecasts for 2025, openly acknowledging the risk of a looming recession and drawing sharp contrast with less transparent rivals.
At a Glance
- United Airlines offers dual profit scenarios to brace for uncertainty
- Earnings could reach $13.50 per share or fall to $7 depending on the economy
- Company plans to cut flights and retire aircraft to stay profitable
- Other airlines like Delta have pulled their guidance entirely
United Charts an Unconventional Flight Path
In an industry first, United Airlines Holdings Inc. has released two separate earnings forecasts for 2025 to account for an unpredictable economy. According to Reuters, United anticipates earnings per share of $11.50 to $13.50 if conditions remain stable—but if a recession takes hold, earnings could drop to as low as $7.
This strategic clarity stands in stark contrast to competitors like Delta and Frontier, which have withdrawn their annual guidance amid growing economic uncertainty. As MarketWatch reports, United’s transparency is not just unusual—it’s drawing both praise and scrutiny from investors.
Watch United’s CEO discuss the dual forecast strategy at United Airlines’ Tale of Two Profit Forecasts.
Cutting Costs While Preparing for Both Outcomes
To remain profitable under either scenario, United is making strategic adjustments. The company plans to reduce flight capacity by 4% in the third quarter and retire 21 older aircraft ahead of schedule, according to PYMNTS. These moves aim to match operating costs with fluctuating travel demand and preserve margins regardless of market conditions.
Despite economic concerns, United delivered a solid performance in the first quarter, reporting earnings of $0.91 per share, which beat analyst estimates. Following the announcement, shares surged by 6.7% in after-hours trading, even as the stock remains down over 30% year to date, as detailed by Reuters.
Rewriting the Playbook for the Airline Industry
In a sector known for opaque forecasting and reactive moves, United’s dual-guidance model is a bold deviation. As The Wall Street Journal notes, United’s leadership argues that acknowledging uncertainty is smarter than pretending it doesn’t exist.
With rivals shying away from firm predictions, United’s move could force a larger industry shift toward openness—even as some analysts remain skeptical. “It’s impossible to predict,” said one executive, “but being ready for both outcomes is better than gambling on just one.
