Trump handily defeated his remaining challenger Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina, carrying 59.8 of the vote to Haley’s 39.5 percent.
However, according to a series of surveys in early primary and caucus states, Trump’s overwhelming support among Republican primary voters may not be enough to help him win in the General Election, the Associated Press reported.
The Associated Press-NORC Center conducted a series of surveys called VoteCast in early primary and caucus states, including Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
The surveys all found that while Trump has enjoyed strong support among Republican primary voters, it is uncertain that his Republican support will put him over the top in November.
According to the surveys conducted among Republican voters in early primary states, the vast majority of Republican primary voters (70 percent) identified as conservative.
However, in the 2020 general election, conservatives accounted for less than 40 percent of the general electorate, the rest were split between moderates and liberals. Trump won only 36 percent of moderates in 2020 and a mere 8 percent of liberals.
Even among registered Republicans in both South Carolina and Iowa, Trump’s support is less than solid. The Associated Press found that at least two in 10 voters in both states said they would not support Trump in the General Election. In New Hampshire, about three in ten Republican primary voters said they would not support Trump if he was the nominee.
Based on exit polling, college-educated voters either chose Nikki Haley or were divided between Haley and Trump in early primary states.
Similarly, Trump failed to win over voters in the suburbs, a key demographic in November since a plurality of the general electorate lives in the suburbs.
Suburban voters in New Hampshire and Iowa were divided between Trump and his opponents, and while Trump won the South Carolina suburban vote, his margin of victory was smaller than his overall margin in the state.
Without these key demographics and shaky support within the GOP, Trump could have trouble winning vital battleground states in November.
