When even CNN admits that they get things wrong, that their polls are pretty useless, and that former President Donald Trump could win in a “blowout” this year, you know times are changing.
But will CNN change? Probably not.
At a glance:
- CNN data reporter Harry Enten predicts Donald Trump could win the 2024 election by a large margin if polls miss the mark as they did in 2020.
- Trump is competing closely with Vice President Kamala Harris in battleground states, according to recent polls.
- Past elections show Trump outperformed polls in 2016 and came close to winning the electoral college in 2020, despite polling deficits.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten stated on Tuesday that former President Donald Trump could secure a major electoral victory in November 2024 if polling inaccuracies similar to those in 2020 occur again. The race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tight in seven key battleground states, according to both RealClearPolling averages and Enten’s own data aggregation.
Enten explained on CNN’s News Central that if Trump exceeds his polling numbers as he did in 2020, he could carry enough battleground states to win the election decisively. He outlined two possible scenarios: one where Harris narrowly wins if polls are accurate, and another where Trump wins by a wide margin if there’s a polling error similar to the one seen in the previous election.
“If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona,” Enten said. “But if we have a polling miss like in 2020, Trump wins with 312 electoral votes by flipping states like Nevada and holding others where he leads.”
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Enten also compared this potential miss to polling errors from 2022, which would give Harris a stronger victory with 319 electoral votes.
In past elections, Trump has consistently outperformed poll predictions. NBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki previously noted Trump’s tendency to close polling gaps, citing his 2016 win and near-victory in 2020, even though both times he trailed in the polls during the campaign.
Despite Trump’s gains among working-class voters, particularly nonwhite Americans without college degrees, Enten suggested that Harris’s strong support among college-educated white voters could balance out Trump’s advantage.
Ultimately, Enten emphasized that the race remains too close to predict a clear winner.
