President Trump’s supporters claim tariff fears were overblown, but economists and global institutions warn that the apparent success may mask deeper structural risks for the U.S. economy.
At a Glance
- Fox News credited Trump tariffs for job growth, 2.4% inflation, and small business confidence
- Critics argue tariffs don’t support the dominant U.S. services sector
- World Bank projects only 1.4% U.S. growth in 2025 despite manufacturing push
- Former IMF official Desmond Lachman warns of recession due to tariffs and tax policy
- Economists warn trade unpredictability is scaring off long-term investment
Are Economic “Booms” Here to Stay?
A Fox News opinion piece celebrated recent job gains and inflation stability as proof Trump’s tariffs are working. May job reports added 140,000 positions, and inflation remains at 2.4%. But The Washington Post points out that over 80% of U.S. employment lies in services—fields untouched or even harmed by tariff policy focused on manufacturing.
Despite media optimism, experts caution that these early gains may not be sustainable if services and investment lag behind.
Global Slowdowns Undercut Optimism
The World Bank projects U.S. GDP growth at just 1.4% for 2025—one of the slowest post-recession rates. Meanwhile, former IMF economist Desmond Lachman warns that the combination of aggressive tariffs and deficit-driving tax cuts could lead to a recession by Q4 2025.
He argues the U.S. is courting “Greek tragedy-level” financial missteps if it continues stimulus without structural reform.
Watch reactions: What Financial Markets Say About Trump’s Tariffs
Instability May Scare Off Investors
Economists are also sounding alarms about the volatility of trade policy itself. Tariff rates have swung wildly—from 0% to nearly 30%—spooking global investors. As The Washington Post warns, such unpredictability undermines institutional confidence, especially when paired with politicized attacks on regulators and international norms.
Polls suggest the public isn’t fully convinced either: 64% of Americans oppose tariffs, despite short-term employment gains. While job reports may show resilience now, long-term growth—and credibility—could falter if broader sectors are neglected.
Trump’s economic bet on tariffs might buy time, but unless paired with investment in innovation, infrastructure, and services, the so-called “booming economy” may prove short-lived.
