What Does Russia’s Tartus Exit Mean for Mediterranean Naval Dynamics?

Russian forces flee Syria as rebels capture Aleppo, threatening Putin’s strategic naval base in Tartus.

At a Glance

  • Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise offensive capturing significant parts of Aleppo and advancing into Hama province.
  • The Russian Navy ship Yelnya has been observed leaving the port of Tartus, Syria, indicating a potential evacuation of naval vessels.
  • Over 300 people, including at least 20 civilians, have been killed in the recent fighting.
  • The loss of Aleppo highlights vulnerabilities in Russia’s Syrian strategy, including weakened ground forces and the Syrian army’s deficiencies.
  • Russia’s response to the offensive revealed operational constraints, struggling to generate enough air sorties quickly.

Rebels Retake Aleppo, Threatening Russian Influence

In a stunning turn of events, Syrian opposition forces have recaptured nearly all of Aleppo, dealing a significant blow to both the Assad regime and its Russian backers. This marks the first time the government has lost control of the city since the civil war began in 2011. The offensive, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and factions supported by Turkey, has not only seized Aleppo but also made significant advances into Hama province.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported 12 deaths in a hospital strike in Aleppo and 8 civilian deaths in Idlib, highlighting the human cost of this renewed conflict. In total, over 300 people, including at least 20 civilians, have been killed in the recent fighting. The UN special envoy for Syria warned of “severe risks to civilians and [has] serious implications for international peace and security.”

Russia’s Strategic Setback

The loss of Aleppo is a significant setback for Russia, challenging its 2016 achievement of recapturing the city, which was then hailed as a symbolic and strategic victory for Moscow. This reversal exposes critical vulnerabilities in Russia’s Syrian strategy, including weakened ground forces and the Syrian army’s deficiencies.

Russia’s military presence in Syria is primarily aerial, with limited ground forces, reducing its flexibility to address new threats. The rebel advance threatens Russia’s strategic position, potentially isolating its coastal bases in Tartus and Latakia. Moscow’s response to the offensive revealed operational constraints, as it struggled to generate enough air sorties quickly to counter the rebel advance.

Tartus Naval Base Under Threat

In a development that underscores the gravity of the situation, the Russian Navy ship Yelnya has been observed leaving the port of Tartus, Syria. This movement suggests a potential evacuation of naval vessels from the strategically crucial base. Tartus has been pivotal for Russia’s support of the Assad regime and its broader global ambitions, particularly in countering NATO’s Mediterranean operations.

The potential loss of the Tartus base would be a major blow to Russia’s maritime influence, potentially shifting the balance of naval power in the Mediterranean region. This evacuation appears to be a safeguard against the mounting instability onshore, as opposition forces continue to make significant gains across Syria.

Assad Regime’s Desperate Response

In response to the rebel offensive, the Syrian government has intensified its military efforts. Syria’s defense ministry claimed to have “reinforced [its] defensive lines” and launched joint Syrian-Russian airstrikes on rebel positions. These strikes included attacks on a refugee camp in Idlib and Aleppo University Hospital, further escalating the humanitarian crisis.

President Assad has vowed to defend Syria’s stability and territorial integrity, but the rapid collapse of government forces in Aleppo suggests a significant weakening of the regime’s military capabilities. The offensive exposed weaknesses in the Assad regime’s defenses, with significant military assets captured by rebels.

International Implications

The sudden shift in Syria’s power dynamics has far-reaching international implications. A US spokesperson criticized Syria’s reliance on Russia and Iran and its refusal to advance a 2015 UN peace plan. Meanwhile, regional powers are recalibrating their positions. The United Arab Emirates, which had been moving towards normalizing relations with Assad, has reaffirmed its support for Syrian “sovereignty” in a call between Bashar al-Assad and Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed.

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