Russian naval forces are abandoning their strategic Mediterranean base in Tartus as Syrian rebels advance, threatening Putin’s foothold in the region.
At a Glance
- Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise offensive capturing significant parts of Aleppo and advancing into Hama province.
- The Russian Navy ship Yelnya has been observed leaving the port of Tartus, Syria, indicating a potential evacuation of naval vessels.
- Over 300 people, including at least 20 civilians, have been killed in the recent fighting.
- The loss of Aleppo highlights vulnerabilities in Russia’s Syrian strategy, including weakened ground forces and the Syrian army’s deficiencies.
- Russia’s response to the offensive revealed operational constraints, struggling to generate enough air sorties quickly.
Rebels Seize Aleppo, Threatening Russia’s Strategic Position
In a stunning turn of events, Syrian rebels have launched a successful offensive, capturing significant parts of Aleppo and advancing into Hama province. This development not only challenges Russia’s 2016 achievement of recapturing Aleppo but also threatens to isolate its coastal bases in Tartus and Latakia. The Syrian government has lost control of Aleppo for the first time since the civil war began, marking a significant setback for both the Assad regime and its Russian allies.
The offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and factions backed by Turkey, has exposed critical weaknesses in the Assad regime’s defenses. Significant military assets have been captured by the rebels, further eroding the government’s ability to maintain control. In response, Syria’s defense ministry claimed they have “reinforced [its] defensive lines” and that “Joint Syrian-Russian warplanes” are conducting airstrikes on rebel positions. However, these measures appear insufficient to stem the tide of the rebel advance.
#BREAKING Russia appears to be evacuating its naval assets from Syria’s Tartus port, a strategic military base on the Mediterranean.
On December 2, 2024, the Russian auxiliary ship Yelnya left Tartus, with reports of two frigates, an auxiliary, and a submarine also departing.… pic.twitter.com/4BpsribVcS
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 3, 2024
Russian Naval Evacuation from Tartus
In a clear sign of the deteriorating situation, the Russian Navy ship Yelnya has been observed leaving the port of Tartus, Syria. This movement suggests an evacuation of naval vessels from this crucial base, which has been instrumental in supporting the Assad regime and Russia’s global ambitions. The loss of Tartus would be a severe blow to Russia’s strategic position in the Mediterranean.
The potential loss of the Tartus base would not only diminish Russia’s ability to project power in the region but also signal a significant shift in the balance of power in Syria. This development could have far-reaching consequences for Russia’s influence in the Middle East and its ability to counter NATO presence in the Mediterranean.
The war is reaching a new stage. Looks like the US is directly destabilizing Russia's proxies and removing its influence in strategic areas. Russia operates a naval base in Tartus, Syria and airbases around Latakia. They, of course, have helped prop Assad up for years, with… https://t.co/VJrN2wFTT0
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) November 30, 2024
Escalating Violence and Humanitarian Concerns
The resurgence of conflict has brought with it a wave of violence and civilian casualties. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported 12 deaths in a hospital strike in Aleppo and 8 civilian deaths in Idlib. The Russian air force conducted significant strikes, including on a refugee camp in Idlib and Aleppo University Hospital. These actions have raised humanitarian concerns, with the UN special envoy for Syria warning of “severe risks to civilians and [has] serious implications for international peace and security.”
The total death toll from the recent fighting has surpassed 300, with at least 20 confirmed civilian casualties. These numbers are likely to rise as the conflict intensifies and more areas become engulfed in the fighting. The international community must take immediate action to protect civilians and prevent further escalation of this humanitarian crisis.
Implications for Russia’s Syrian Strategy
The loss of Aleppo and the potential evacuation of Tartus highlight significant vulnerabilities in Russia’s Syrian strategy. Russia’s military presence in Syria is primarily aerial, with limited ground forces, reducing its flexibility to address new threats. The rebel advance has exposed the deficiencies of the Syrian army and the limitations of Russian air support in the face of a determined ground offensive.
Russia’s response to the offensive revealed operational constraints, as it struggled to generate enough air sorties quickly to stem the rebel advance. This raises questions about Russia’s ability to maintain its influence in Syria and protect its strategic interests in the region. The potential loss of the Tartus base would be a significant setback for Russia’s Mediterranean strategy and its ability to project power beyond its immediate borders.
